December 19, 2011 - A Securities and Exchange Commission approved statistical rating organization, Fitch Ratings, predicts flat or nominal traffic growth for most airports in 2012. The sector faces headwinds in the form of carriers restraining capacity and macroeconomic pressures.

Some are dealing with the last operational changes attributable to the mergers between United and Continental and Southwest and Airtran. Still others may feel the brunt of AMR's restructuring and route changes. On November 29, 2011 AMR Corporation filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection with $4 billion in cash reserve.

The decision comes as the airline tries to "achieve a cost and debt structure that is industry competitive and thereby assure its long-term viability and ability to continue delivering a world-class travel experience for its customers," the company said in a statement.

U.S. airlines have signaled that 2012 scheduled capacity growth will remain constrained or even reduced in the face of high jet fuel costs and the potential for sluggish air travel demand growth in an uncertain macroenvironment. The AMR bankruptcy is likely to drive additional capacity discipline, as underperforming routes are cut and the carrier's fleet is rationalized in Chapter 11.  

The operational changes brought on by recent merger participants will also present some challenges. Secondary hubs such as Memphis or Cleveland's Hopkins International could suffer if their respective anchor carriers reduce or reallocate direct service to other primary hubs such as Atlanta or Chicago.

Fitch has set Memphis airport revenue bond rating at 'A+' with a Negative Rating Outlook, while Cleveland airport's revenue bonds hold an 'A-' rating, with a Stable Rating Outlook. There are also a number of upcoming slot revisions in the Washington and New York markets caused by mergers. However, their impact remains to be seen.