Economic Times Reflected In November Airline Traffic Figures
By Eddy Metcalf
December 18, 2011 - IAA commercial terminal traffic
figures for Shannon, Dublin and Cork airports dropped by
5.5% in November 2011, when compared to November 2010.
Individually, the November 2011 figures for the three
State airports, when compared to the same month in the
previous year are;
Commercial terminal flights at Dublin were down by 4.1%,
with an average of 366 daily movements. Commercial
terminal flights at Cork were down 14.8%, with an
average of 49 daily movements. Commercial terminal
flights at Shannon were down 5.7%, with an average of 45
When adjusted for the Icelandic volcanic ash crisis in 2010 however, the comparable growth for the same period in 2010 is adjusted downward to a 1.3% drop in traffic. More startling is the comparison between 2011 and the peak year of 2008. Commercial terminal traffic for Shannon, Dublin and Cork airports between January 2011 and November 2011, when compared to the same months in 2008 shows a 27% drop in traffic.
Analysis of the November 2011 data from
EUROCONTROL shows that only four of Irelands Top Ten Airport
Pairs (from a billing perspective) showed growth, when compared
to November 2010. These are Dublin - London Heathrow (1.4%);
Dublin - London Gatwick (9.8%); Dublin - Manchester (0.9%) and
London Heathrow - Boston (16.9%).
The IAAs traffic figures for November 2011 indicate that total flights in Irish airspace have declined by 4.5%, when compared to November 2010, making this the fourth consecutive month this year that the IAA has observed this level of downturn in total traffic numbers. There was an average of 1,240 daily flights during November 2011, the busiest day being the 11th of November with 1,415 flights in Irish airspace.
There was a decline of 3.3% in Irelands
en-route traffic movements (flights which do not land in
Ireland) during November 2011, in comparison to November 2010.
The IAAs analysis of North Atlantic Communications flights
(Europe /US Flights) also saw a decline of 1.73% in November
2011, when compared to the same month in 2010.
On a cumulative
basis, growth in en-route traffic movements and North Atlantic
Communications flights between January 2011 and November 2011 was 3.5%
and 4.2% respectively. However, when this growth is adjusted for the
Icelandic volcanic ash crisis in 2010, the comparable growth for the
eleven months between January 2011 and November 2011, when compared to
2010, is negligible.
The latest data
from EUROCONTROL indicates that traffic growth for 2011 will end at
about 4.5% growth in Europe. However, traffic growth in Europe during
2011 was very much driven by compensating for adverse events during
2010, with the Icelandic ash cloud, strikes and bad weather, which
contributed to almost 2% lost flights in 2010. After removing this from
the forecast, the underlying growth for Europe is only about 2.5%,
indicating only a gradual recovery from the low 2009 year.
Air Transport Association (IATA) cut its forecast for airline industry
profits by a quarter to USD$3.5 billion for 2012 and warned the industry
could plunge to an USD$8.3 billion loss if Europes debt problems trigger
another banking crisis. IATA, whose 240 airlines carry 84% of global
traffic, had previously forecast industry profits of USD$4.9 billion in
2012 after an estimated profit of USD$6.9 billion this year. The 2011
figure remains unchanged in IATAs latest industry outlook.
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