November 3, 2010 - The Department of Transportation’s Office of Inspector General (OIG) issued their report on the causes and nationwide effects of flight delays at the principal New York area airports; Kennedy, LaGuardia, and Newark.

The Chairman of the House Subcommittee on Aviation requested that OIG determine the principal causes of flights delays in the New York region and identify the corresponding effect of these delays nationwide.

During the summer of 2007, these airports led the Nation with over 40 percent of arriving flights either delayed or cancelled. OIG conducted an audit from June 2009 through August 2010 in accordance with government auditing standards prescribed by the Comptroller General of the United States.

Flight delays have been a significant problem for the New York region for many decades. While various factors have contributed to this problem, the three principal causes are a small and densely occupied airspace, limited capacity among the region’s three main airports, and continued growth in air traffic.

FAA first attempted to manage flight delays at LaGuardia, Newark, and Kennedy in 1970 using flight limits (or caps) under the High Density Rule, but those limits were phased out between 2000 and 2007.  While the phase-out had noticeable benefits, such as reduced air fares and service to new markets due to increased competition, it also led to record levels of flight delays for the New York region.

To prevent delays from getting worse, the FAA reintroduced flight caps in 2008. Yet, these new caps have done little to reduce delays at New York because the FAA based the caps on the airports’ 2007 operating levels despite record delays and did not establish an on-time performance target.  OIG reported for flight caps to have more success in preventing delays from again rising to record levels, the FAA will need to reexamine them, basing them on realistic airport operating conditions, air carrier scheduling practices, and an acceptable rate of delay.

While there is substantial agreement within the aviation community that New York delays have a propagation (i.e., ripple) effect across the Nation, the extent and nature of their impact are largely unknown. The FAA and others’ attempts to measure the ripple effect have been hampered by the volume, complexity, and limitations of existing flight data and analytic methods as well as insufficient leadership and coordination among research groups studying this issue.

Although the FAA has initiated two projects to measure delay propagation, additional work remains before either will prove to be useful analyses of delay propagation. As a result, no one fully understands the impact of New York flight delays nationwide, whether New York airports absorb or generate delays, or what other airports are affected and to what degree.

Gaining a greater understanding of the dynamics of flight delays and their nationwide impact will aid the FAA’s efforts to reduce flight delays and congestion, better manage air traffic, and improve investment decisions.  OIG is recommending that FAA reexamine its flight caps, enhance existing flight data, and develop a viable methodology for understanding the propagation effects of flight delays.

OIG is recommending that the FAA

1) Reexamine flight caps at Kennedy, LaGuardia, and Newark airports, basing the caps on more realistic airport operating conditions, air carrier scheduling practices, and a goal towards reducing delays to an acceptable rate. In considering an acceptable rate and length of delay, FAA should incorporate the views of air carriers, the airport operator, and passenger groups as well as lessons learned from other slot-controlled airports.

2. Establish a working group of air carriers, academia, and other aviation research organizations to enhance the understanding of delay propagation (e.g., develop viable analytic.

3. Enhance existing flight delay data by obtaining aircraft tail numbers for domestic and international flight operations of U.S. air carriers in order to better study and manage the propagation effect of flight delays.