February 16, 2011 - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) released its annual forecast on Tuesday predicting that air travel will more than double in the next 20 years. This report underscores the need to keep the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) on track to accommodate future growth. 

?We need to invest in aviation today to make sure America?s economy remains competitive,? said U.S. Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood. ?Innovative NextGen technology will help meet the demands of the future by getting passengers to their destinations safely and more quickly.? 

Today?s release of the FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011-2031 predicts that U.S. airlines will reach the one billion passengers-per-year mark by 2021, two years earlier than last year?s prediction of 2023. 

Domestic enplanements on mainline and regional air carriers increased from 630.8M in 2009 to 635.3M (0.7%) in 2010. Domestic mainline carrier enplanements dropped 0.7% while domestic regional carrier enplanements increased 5.0%. International enplanements on mainline and regional air carriers increased from 73.6M in 2009 to 77.4M (5.2%) in 2010. Mainline and regional international enplanements were both up 5.2%, respectively. 

Domestic RPMs by mainline and regional air carriers increased from 548.6B in 2009 to 555.8B (1.3%) in 2010. Domestic mainline carrier RPMs increased 0.5% and domestic regional carrier RPMs increased 6.7%. International RPMs by US carriers increased from 221.3B in 2009 to 230.9B (4.3%) in 2010. Total system RPMs increased from 769.9B in 2009 to 786.7B (2.2%) in 2010. Total mainline carrier RPMs increased by 1.7% while total regional carrier RPMs increased by 6.6%. 

U.S. commercial air carriers (including passenger and cargo) reported an operating profit of $9.5B in 2010, compared to an operating profit of $849.8M in 2009. Operating revenues increased 7.0% in 2010, while operating expenses increased 1.6%. 

In 2010 total landings and takeoffs at combined FAA and contract towers were down 3.2% from 2009. Air carrier activity decreased by 1.4% while commuter/air taxi activity decreased by 1.1%. General aviation activity dropped 5.1% while military aircraft activity rose 0.9%. 

U.S. Real GDP is forecast to increase from $13.2T in 2010 to $23.1T in 2031, an average annual rate of 2.7%. World GDP is forecast to grow at a faster pace of 3.3% over the same 21-year period, from $51.0T to $100.7T. Inflation is projected to increase 1.1% in 2011 and remain moderate over the remaining 20 years of the forecast period, averaging 2.0% annually. 

Total mainline air carrier and regional RPMs are forecast to increase from 786.7B in 2010 to 1.71T in 2031, an average annual rate of 3.8%. Domestic RPMs are projected to increase 3.5% in 2011 and then grow an average of 3.1% per year during the remaining 20-year forecast period. International RPMs are forecast to increase 8.4% in 2011 and then grow an average of 4.8% per year for the rest of the forecast period. 

Total mainline air carrier and regional enplanements are forecast to increase from 712.6M in 2010 to 1.27B in 2031, an average annual rate of 2.8%. Domestic enplanements are projected to increase 3.0% in 2011 and then grow an average of 2.5% per year during the remaining 20-year forecast period. International enplanements are forecast to increase 7.8% in 2011 and then grow an average of 4.3% per year for the rest of the forecast period. Total system enplanements are expected to reach one billion in 2021. 

U.S. mainline carrier domestic RPMs are forecast to increase 3.4% in 2011 and grow at an average annual rate of 2.9% for the remaining 20 years of the forecast period. U.S. mainline carrier domestic enplanements are forecast to increase 2.8% in 2011. For the remaining 20 years of the forecast period, enplanements grow at an average annual rate of 2.4%, reaching 785.8M in 2031. 

U.S. mainline carrier international RPMs are forecast to increase 8.4% in 2011 and grow at an average annual rate of 4.9% for the remaining 20 years of the forecast period. U.S. mainline carrier enplanements are forecast to increase 7.9% in 2011, and then grow an average of 4.4% per year thereafter, reaching 190.4M in 2031. The fastest growing region is Asia/Pacific (5.0% per year), followed by Latin America (4.9% per year), and the Atlantic (3.7% per year). 

Total passengers to/from the U.S. (U.S. and foreign flag carriers) are projected to increase 3.1% in 2011 (calendar year). The average annual rate of growth between 2010 and 2031 is 4.5%, with passengers increasing from 149.6M to 373.9M. The fastest growing region is Latin America at 5.1% per year, followed by Asia/Pacific (5.0% per year), Atlantic (3.9% per year) and Canadian Transborder (3.4% per year). 

Domestic mainline passenger real yield (adjusted for inflation) is forecast to increase from 12.57 cents in 2010 to 12.82 cents in 2011 (up 2.0%). Thereafter, domestic mainline carrier real yield declines at an average rate of 0.8% dropping to 10.97 cents in 2031. International mainline real yield is forecast to increase from 12.86 cents in 2010 to 13.51 cents in 2011 (up 5.0%). Thereafter, international real yield declines at a rate of 0.9% annually, falling to 11.24 cents by 2031. U.S. mainline air carrier passenger jet fleet increases from 3,713 aircraft in 2010 to 5,888 aircraft in 2031, an average annual increase of 2.2%. The fleet is projected to shrink by 0.5% in 2011 (19 aircraft), with most of the decrease attributed to the grounding of less fuel-efficient aircraft. 

Regional carrier enplanements are forecast to increase 3.4% to 170.0M in 2011, and grow 2.8% a year thereafter, reaching 295.9M in 2031. Regional carrier RPMs are forecast to increase 4.3% in 2011 and grow at an average annual rate of 4.1% for the remaining 20 years of the forecast period. The regional carrier passenger aircraft fleet increases from 2,577 aircraft in 2010 to 3,384 aircraft in 2031, an average annual increase of 1.3%. The fleet is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2011 (31 aircraft). Regional jets increase from 1,771 aircraft in 2010 to 2,764 aircraft in 2031, an annual increase of 2.1%. All of the increase is attributed to jet aircraft in the 70-90-seat category. 

Total air cargo RTMs (freight/express and mail) increase from 35.9B in 2010 to 93.2B in 2031?up an average of 4.7% a year; domestic RTMs increase 2.8% a year; international RTMs increase 5.5% a year. The cargo fleet increases from 806 aircraft in 2010 to 1,251 aircraft in 2031, an average increase of 2.1% a year. 

The general aviation fleet increases from 224,172 aircraft in 2010 to 270,920 in 2031, growing an average of 0.9% a year. Fixed-wing turbine aircraft grow at a rate of 3.1% per year, fixed-wing piston aircraft grow at a rate of 0.2% per year, and rotorcraft grow at a rate of 2.6% per year. General aviation hours flown are forecast to increase from 24.1M in 2010 to 37.8M in 2031, an average annual growth rate of 2.2% a year. Fixed-wing turbine aircraft hours flown grow at a rate of 4.0% per year, fixed-wing piston aircraft hours flown grow at a rate of 0.7% per year, and rotorcraft hours flown grow at a rate of 3.0% per year. 

Total operations are forecast to decrease 0.6% to 50.9M in 2011, and then grow at an average annual rate of 1.6% for the remainder of the forecast period, reaching 69.4M in 2031. The average annual growth rate for the entire 21-year forecast period is 1.5%. Commercial operations increase 2.3% in 2011, and grow at a rate of 2.1% thereafter, reaching 33.9M in 2031. General aviation operations decrease 3.1% in 2011, and grow at a rate of 1.2% thereafter, totaling 32.9M in 2031. 

TRACON operations are forecast to increase 0.1% to 39.0M in 2011, and then grow at an average annual rate of 1.8%for the remainder of the forecast period, reaching 55.3M in 2031. The average annual growth rate for the entire 21-year forecast period is 1.7%. Commercial TRACON operations increase 2.1% in 2011, and grow at a rate of 2.1% thereafter, reaching 35.0M in 2031. General aviation TRACON operations decrease 3.3% in 2011, and grow at a rate of 1.5% thereafter, totaling 17.9M in 2031.