FAA Forecast Predicts Air Travel To
Double In Two Decades
February 16, 2011 - The Federal Aviation Administration
(FAA) released its annual forecast on Tuesday predicting
that air travel will more than double in the next 20
years. This report underscores the need to keep the Next
Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) on track
to accommodate future growth.
?We need to invest in aviation today to make sure
Today?s release of the FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal
Years 2011-2031 predicts that
NextGen, the FAA is transforming the
aviation standard to measure air travel volume is Revenue
Passenger Miles (RPM) or one paying passenger traveling one
mile. According to the
forecast, RPMs are projected to more than double over the next
two decades, from 787 billion in 2010 to 1.7 trillion in 2031.
figure is projected to grow an average of 2.8 percent each year
during the remaining forecast period to 1.3 billion by 2031. 2010 Summary Economic Activity And Air Travel:
2010 Summary Economic Activity And Air Travel:
Domestic Product (GDP) increased 2.2%; world GDP increased 3.6%.
Domestic mainline yields increased 5.2% while international
yields increased 10.0%. In real terms (adjusted for inflation),
domestic yields increased 3.4% and international yields
enplanements on mainline and regional air carriers increased from 630.8M
in 2009 to 635.3M (0.7%) in 2010. Domestic mainline carrier enplanements
dropped 0.7% while domestic regional carrier enplanements increased
5.0%. International enplanements on mainline and regional air carriers
increased from 73.6M in 2009 to 77.4M (5.2%) in 2010. Mainline and
regional international enplanements were both up 5.2%, respectively.
Domestic RPMs by
mainline and regional air carriers increased from 548.6B in 2009 to
555.8B (1.3%) in 2010. Domestic mainline carrier RPMs increased 0.5% and
domestic regional carrier RPMs increased 6.7%. International RPMs by US
carriers increased from 221.3B in 2009 to 230.9B (4.3%) in 2010. Total
system RPMs increased from 769.9B in 2009 to 786.7B (2.2%) in 2010.
Total mainline carrier RPMs increased by 1.7% while total regional
carrier RPMs increased by 6.6%.
In 2010 total
landings and takeoffs at combined FAA and contract towers were down 3.2%
from 2009. Air carrier activity decreased by 1.4% while commuter/air
taxi activity decreased by 1.1%. General aviation activity dropped 5.1%
while military aircraft activity rose 0.9%.
U.S. Real GDP is
forecast to increase from $13.2T in 2010 to $23.1T in 2031, an average
annual rate of 2.7%. World GDP is forecast to grow at a faster pace of
3.3% over the same 21-year period, from $51.0T to $100.7T. Inflation is
projected to increase 1.1% in 2011 and remain moderate over the
remaining 20 years of the forecast period, averaging 2.0% annually.
Total mainline air
carrier and regional RPMs are forecast to increase from 786.7B in 2010
to 1.71T in 2031, an average annual rate of 3.8%. Domestic RPMs are
projected to increase 3.5% in 2011 and then grow an average of 3.1% per
year during the remaining 20-year forecast period. International RPMs
are forecast to increase 8.4% in 2011 and then grow an average of 4.8%
per year for the rest of the forecast period.
Total mainline air
carrier and regional enplanements are forecast to increase from 712.6M
in 2010 to 1.27B in 2031, an average annual rate of 2.8%. Domestic
enplanements are projected to increase 3.0% in 2011 and then grow an
average of 2.5% per year during the remaining 20-year forecast period.
International enplanements are forecast to increase 7.8% in 2011 and
then grow an average of 4.3% per year for the rest of the forecast
period. Total system enplanements are expected to reach one billion in
passenger real yield (adjusted for inflation) is forecast to increase
from 12.57 cents in 2010 to 12.82 cents in 2011 (up 2.0%). Thereafter,
domestic mainline carrier real yield declines at an average rate of 0.8%
dropping to 10.97 cents in 2031. International mainline real yield is
forecast to increase from 12.86 cents in 2010 to 13.51 cents in 2011 (up
5.0%). Thereafter, international real yield declines at a rate of 0.9%
annually, falling to 11.24 cents by 2031.
enplanements are forecast to increase 3.4% to 170.0M in 2011, and grow
2.8% a year thereafter, reaching 295.9M in 2031. Regional carrier RPMs
are forecast to increase 4.3% in 2011 and grow at an average annual rate
of 4.1% for the remaining 20 years of the forecast period. The regional
carrier passenger aircraft fleet increases from 2,577 aircraft in 2010
to 3,384 aircraft in 2031, an average annual increase of 1.3%. The fleet
is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2011 (31 aircraft). Regional jets
increase from 1,771 aircraft in 2010 to 2,764 aircraft in 2031, an
annual increase of 2.1%. All of the increase is attributed to jet
aircraft in the 70-90-seat category.
Total air cargo
RTMs (freight/express and mail) increase from 35.9B in 2010 to 93.2B in
2031?up an average of 4.7% a year; domestic RTMs increase 2.8% a year;
international RTMs increase 5.5% a year. The cargo fleet increases from
806 aircraft in 2010 to 1,251 aircraft in 2031, an average increase of
2.1% a year.
aviation fleet increases from 224,172 aircraft in 2010 to 270,920 in
2031, growing an average of 0.9% a year. Fixed-wing turbine aircraft
grow at a rate of 3.1% per year, fixed-wing piston aircraft grow at a
rate of 0.2% per year, and rotorcraft grow at a rate of 2.6% per year.
are forecast to decrease 0.6% to 50.9M in 2011, and then grow at an
average annual rate of 1.6% for the remainder of the forecast period,
reaching 69.4M in 2031. The average annual growth rate for the entire
21-year forecast period is 1.5%.
are forecast to increase 0.1% to 39.0M in 2011, and then grow at an
average annual rate of 1.8%for the remainder of the forecast period,
reaching 55.3M in 2031. The average annual growth rate for the entire
21-year forecast period is 1.7%.
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