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By Eddy Metcalf |
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December 16, 2010 - Almost 26,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at US$3.2 trillion will be needed between 2010 and 2029, to satisfy demand according to Airbus’ Global Market Forecast (GMF).
This demand is primarily driven by replacement of
aircraft for newer more eco-efficient models in mature
markets, dynamic growth in new emerging markets,
low-cost carriers particularly in
The 2010 GMF forecasts 900 additional new passenger
aircraft deliveries over the 2009 GMF reflecting a
slightly higher growth rate of 4.8% compared to 4.7% in
2009. These aircraft will mainly be in the single aisle
sector in which the A320 Family competes. |
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Out of the almost 26,000 additional passenger and freighter aircraft needed, around 25,000 will be passenger aircraft valued at over US$2.9 trillion. Of these additional passenger aircraft, 10,000 will replace older less eco-efficient aircraft and some 15,000 will be for growth. Taking into account today’s passenger fleet of over 14,000 aircraft, the world passenger fleet will rise to some 29,000 aircraft by 2029. “The recovery is stronger than predicted and reinforces both the resilience of the sector to downturns and that people want and need to fly,” says John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer Customers.
“The
single aisle sector is particularly strong, and our A320neo
meets this future demand by providing our customers with the
latest innovations and technologies whilst maintaining maximum
commonality. Our entire product range is very well positioned to
meet the economic and environmental needs for sustainable growth
for the decades ahead.”
In
passenger traffic volume, domestic US leads the world in total
RPK’s (11.3%) followed by domestic China (8.4%), Intra European
(7.2%), then US to Western European routes (5.9%). |
“Airlines in Asia
Pacific including China and India will carry one third (33%) of the
passenger traffic by 2029, making it the largest region, overtaking
Europe (25%) and North America (20%),” said Chris Emerson, Head of
Product Strategy and Market Forecast. Freight traffic is recovering at an even faster rate (5.9%) than passenger traffic growth. In 2010, freight traffic is expected to rebound closer to 18% before leveling off at more typical growth levels by the end of 2011. Combined with fleet renewal, this translates to a demand for around 2,980 freighters. While some 870 will be new aircraft valued at US$211 billion, 2,110 will be converted from passenger aircraft.
Demand for Very
Large Aircraft (VLA) passenger and freighter aircraft like the A380, is
more than 1,700 valued at over US$570 billion (this represents 18% by
value and 7% by units). Of these, some 1,320 will connect the world’s
increasing number of ‘mega’ cities. |
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