International Passenger Development
International passenger numbers are expected to grow
from 1.11 billion in 2011 to 1.45 billion passengers in
2016, bringing 331 million passengers for a compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3%.
Five of the 10 fastest growing markets for international
passenger traffic are among the Commonwealth of
Independent States or were part of the former Soviet
Union with the others in Latin America, Africa and the
Asia-Pacific region. Kazakhstan leads at 20.3% CAGR,
followed by Uzbekistan (11.1%), Sudan (9.2%), Uruguay
(9%), Azerbaijan (8.9%), Ukraine (8.8%), Cambodia
(8.7%), Chile (8.5%), Panama (8.5%) and the Russian
2016, the top five countries for international travel
measured by number of passengers will be the United
States (at 223.1 million, an increase of 42.1 million),
the United Kingdom (at 200.8 million, 32.8 million new
passengers), Germany (at 172.9 million, +28.2 million),
Spain (134.6 million, +21.6 million), and France (123.1
million, +23.4 million).
Domestic Passenger Development
Domestic passenger numbers are expected to rise from
1.72 billion in 2011 to 2.21 billion in 2016, a 494
million increase reflecting a CAGR of 5.2% over the
Kazakhstan will experience the fastest growth rate at
22.5% CAGR, adding 3.9 million passengers to the 2.2
million in 2011. India will have the second highest
growth rate at 13.1% CAGR, adding 49.3 million new
passengers. China’s 10.1% rate will result in 158.9
million new domestic passengers. No other country is
expected to experience double-digit growth rates over
the forecast period. Brazil, which has the industry’s
third largest domestic market after the United States
and China, will experience an 8% CAGR, adding 38 million
2016 the five largest markets for domestic passengers
will be the United States (710.2 million), China (415
million), Brazil (118.9 million), India (107.2 million),
and Japan (93.2 million).
International Freight Developments
International freight volumes are expected to grow at a
five-year CAGR of 3.0%, which is the result of an upward
growth trend over forecast period - starting at 1.4%
growth in 2012 and reaching 3.7% in 2016.
The five fastest growing international freight markets
over the 2011-2016 period will be Sir Lanka (8.7% CAGR),
Vietnam (7.4%), Brazil (6.3%), India (6.0%) and Egypt
(5.9%). Five of the 10 fastest growing countries are in
the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region, reflecting
MENA’s growing importance in international air freight.
2016, the largest international freight markets will be
the United States (7.7 million tons), Germany (4.2
million tons), China (3.5 million tons), Hong Kong (3.2
million tons), Japan (2.9 million tons), the United Arab
Emirates (2.5 million tonnes), the Republic of Korea
(1.9 million tons), the United Kingdom (1.8 million
tonnes), India (1.6 million tons) and the Netherlands
(1.6 million tons).
Freight carriage within the Asia-Pacific region
will account for around 30% of the expected total
increase in freight tonnage over the period.
Regional Outlook over the 2012-2016 forecast period
Asia-Pacific passenger traffic is forecast to grow at
6.7% CAGR. Traffic within the Asia-Pacific region will
represent 33% of global passengers in 2016, up from 29%
in 2011. This makes the region the largest regional
market for air transport (ahead of North America and
Europe which each represent 21%). International freight
demand will rise 3% CAGR, in line with global growth
over the period. Routes within and connected to the
Asia-Pacific region will comprise some 57% of cargo
Africa will report the strongest passenger growth with
6.8% CAGR. International cargo demand will rise 4%.
The Middle East is expected to have the third fastest
growth rate at 6.6%. International freight demand will
grow at 4.9%, the strongest growth among the regions.
Europe will see international passenger demand growth of
4.4% CAGR. International freight demand for the region
will grow 2.2% CAGR, the slowest for any region.
North America will record the slowest international
passenger demand growth--4.3% CAGR. International
freight demand will rise 2.4%.
Latin America will see international passenger demand
grow 5.8% CAGR. International freight demand will
increase 4.4% per annum.